Mortgage volume projected to fall below two trillion dollars by 2027

Single-family mortgage volume will drop 5 percent to $1.99 trillion in 2027 as borrowing costs remain elevated, HousingWire reported. The Mortgage Bankers Association presented the forecast on Sunday at its 2026 Annual Convention and Expo in Chicago. HousingWire and Realtor.com both report that mortgage rates are expected to stay above 7 percent through 2027. [1][2]

The projections follow a spike in borrowing costs, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates reaching 7.5 percent last week, according to HousingWire. Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development at the Mortgage Bankers Association, stated during the Chicago event that while rates will decrease from recent spikes, they are not expected to decline significantly. [1]

The standard fixed-rate mortgage amortizes over long terms, typically 15 to 30 years, with monthly payments covering both principal reduction and interest. Meanwhile, large capital movements in other areas of the economy have impacted overall financing conditions. Analysis showed AI capital spending grew rapidly by September 2026, with a surge in new bond market debt increasing borrowing costs across other economic sectors. [3][4]

The forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicates that persistent inflation pressures, wider spreads, and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes will continue to slow mortgage originations over the next several years, HousingWire reported. [1]